The world remains dangerously off track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment.
The agency’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that projected global warming by the end of the century has fallen only slightly, leaving the planet on course for severe climate risks and damages.
The report estimates that, if all current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, global temperatures are likely to rise by 2.3°C to 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century. This represents only a marginal improvement from last year’s projection of 2.6°C to 2.8°C. Under existing policies alone, temperatures could rise by up to 2.8°C, compared with 3.1°C in 2024.
UNEP notes that methodological updates account for about 0.1°C of the improvement, while the upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is expected to offset another 0.1°C. In effect, the new pledges have made little difference to the world’s overall trajectory.
“The new NDCs have barely moved the needle,” the report states. “Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.”
The report warns that the multi-decadal global average temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily—a threshold that scientists say will be difficult to reverse. Avoiding prolonged overshoot would require faster and deeper emissions cuts to minimize damages and reduce reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal technologies.
“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable—starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. One-point-five degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star—and the science is clear: this goal is still within reach, but only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen echoed this urgency. “Nations have had three attempts to deliver on the promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” Andersen said. “Progress is happening, but nowhere near fast enough. We still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, and against an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”
She added, “It is still possible—just. Proven solutions exist, from the rapid expansion of cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action—action that delivers faster economic growth, better health, more jobs, and greater energy security.”
Few New Pledges, Widening Gaps
As of 30 September 2025, only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement, covering 63% of global emissions, had submitted or announced new 2035 targets. Meanwhile, most countries remain off track to meet their 2030 commitments.
Emissions rose by 2.3% in 2024, reaching a record 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent. To align with the Paris goals, emissions in 2030 would need to fall by 25% from 2019 levels to stay below 2°C—and by 40% to stay below 1.5°C.
Full implementation of all current NDCs would reduce emissions by only 15% by 2035, far short of the 35–55% cuts needed for the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively. The US withdrawal is expected to further weaken these figures.
Overshoot Now Inevitable, but Action Can Limit Damage
The report concludes that the world will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold within the next decade. Rapid near-term action could limit this overshoot to about 0.3°C and return temperatures to 1.5°C by 2100, but only if global emissions fall by 26% by 2030 and 46% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels.
Every fraction of a degree avoided matters, UNEP stresses, as it reduces the risk of devastating climate tipping points, human health impacts, and irreversible environmental damage—especially for the poorest and most vulnerable communities.
Tools Exist, but Political Will Lags
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, temperature projections have fallen from 3–3.5°C to current levels. The technologies needed for deep emissions cuts—especially wind and solar power—are already available and increasingly cost-effective.
However, the report warns that accelerated progress requires navigating a difficult geopolitical landscape, massively increasing support to developing countries, and reforming the global financial system.
G20 nations, which account for 77% of global emissions, will be pivotal. Yet, only seven G20 members have submitted new 2035 targets, and three have announced plans to do so. Collectively, G20 emissions rose 0.7% in 2024, leaving the world’s biggest emitters far from meeting even their 2030 goals.