Global unemployment is expected to remain stable in 2026, but progress towards decent and secure work has stalled, leaving hundreds of millions of people trapped in low-quality jobs, according to a new report by the International Labour Organization (ILO).
The ILO’s Employment and Social Trends 2026 report projects the global unemployment rate will hold at 4.9 per cent next year, equivalent to around 186 million people.
However, the organisation warns that headline stability masks deeper structural weaknesses in labour markets, particularly affecting young people, women and workers in low-income countries.
“Resilient growth and stable unemployment figures should not distract us from the deeper reality: hundreds of millions of workers remain trapped in poverty, informality and exclusion,” said ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo.
The report finds that job quality is under sustained pressure. Nearly 300 million workers continue to live in extreme poverty, earning less than $3 a day, while informality is rising globally.
By 2026, an estimated 2.1 billion people are expected to be working in informal jobs, often without social protection, labour rights or job security. Progress has been particularly slow in low-income countries, widening inequalities between and within regions.
A key obstacle identified is the slowdown in economic transformation. Many countries are struggling to shift labour into higher-value industries and services, limiting productivity growth and wage gains.
Young people remain among the hardest hit. Youth unemployment rose to 12.4 per cent in 2025, while around 260 million young people worldwide are not in education, employment or training (NEET). In low-income countries, the NEET rate stands at almost 28 per cent. The ILO also cautions that artificial intelligence and automation could intensify labour market pressures, especially for educated young people seeking entry-level positions in high-skilled occupations.
Gender inequalities persist, driven largely by social norms and structural barriers. Women account for just two-fifths of global employment and are 24 per cent less likely than men to participate in the labour force. Gains in female participation have stalled, slowing progress towards workplace equality.
Demographic shifts are also reshaping labour markets. Ageing populations are constraining labour force growth in high-income economies, while rapid population growth in poorer countries is outpacing the creation of productive jobs.
Employment growth in 2026 is projected at 0.5 per cent in upper-middle-income countries, compared with 3.1 per cent in low-income economies. Without sufficient quality employment, many countries risk squandering their demographic dividend, the report warns.
Global trade uncertainty is adding further strain. Disruptions to supply chains and unclear trade rules are weighing on wages, particularly in South and Southeast Asia and parts of Europe. Trade nonetheless remains a major source of employment, supporting around 465 million jobs worldwide, more than half of them in Asia and the Pacific.
“Unless governments, employers and workers act together to harness technology responsibly and expand quality job opportunities for women and youth, decent work deficits will persist and social cohesion will be at risk,” Houngbo said.