Bangladesh could face an additional Tk610 billion annual burden from the ongoing global energy shock, a development that may significantly strain the economy without swift policy action, the president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry has warned.
Taskeen Ahmed made the remarks while presenting a keynote paper at a roundtable titled “Navigating the Global Energy Shock: Impact on Bangladesh & Way Forward” at the chamber’s auditorium on Thursday.
He said Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported energy—around 95% of total consumption—has left it highly vulnerable to global price swings, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
If oil prices remain above $120 per barrel, the country could incur an additional $4–5 billion in costs, alongside rising subsidy pressures for LNG and fuel imports.
Higher energy prices are already feeding into inflation, widening the fiscal deficit and putting pressure on foreign exchange reserves, Ahmed noted.
Each $10 increase in oil prices may add roughly $1 billion to annual expenditure, while cumulative losses at the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation have exceeded Tk45,000 crore.
The energy crunch is also deepening supply constraints. Gas supply to industries has fallen by around 40%, while electricity shortages now exceed 3,000 megawatts—disrupting manufacturing, exports and domestic supply chains.
Energy-intensive sectors such as ready-made garments, cement, steel and pharmaceuticals are already grappling with rising costs. Freight charges have surged by 20% to 40%, and additional container fees of $500 to $4,000 are further pushing up export prices.
The wider economic impact is becoming increasingly visible. Small and medium-sized enterprises are identifying energy shortages as a key constraint, while rural areas continue to face prolonged power cuts of up to 14 hours.
Rising diesel prices are also driving up irrigation costs, posing risks to agricultural output and food security.
Ahmed stressed that Bangladesh must act quickly to contain the fallout. He called for diversifying energy sources, accelerating renewable energy adoption and securing long-term LNG supply agreements to reduce exposure to global volatility.
He also highlighted the need for better demand management, including more efficient energy use, expansion of rooftop solar, prioritising power supply for export-oriented industries, and strengthening storage and LNG infrastructure.
Without a clear and coordinated energy strategy, Ahmed warned, Bangladesh risks sliding from a fragile recovery into a deeper structural economic crisis.