Bangladesh’s economy showed early signs of recovery in the last six months of FY2025, according to the Bangladesh State of the Economy 2025 report released on Monday by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission.
Unveiling the report at the NEC Conference Room in Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, GED noted that despite earlier forecasts of subdued growth, recent economic indicators point to a gradual rebound.
The report cites projections from major development partners, with the World Bank estimating GDP growth for FY2025 between 3.3% and 4.1%, and the Asian Development Bank forecasting 3.9%. Growth is expected to accelerate in FY2026, rising to 5.1%–5.3%.
GED highlights growing stability in the external sector, driven by strong remittance inflows, steady imports, and a pickup in capital machinery imports—signals of improving domestic demand and returning investor confidence.
Export earnings also remained firm, supported by the ready-made garment (RMG) sector’s improved competitiveness through compliance upgrades and market diversification. Foreign exchange reserves stabilised at levels sufficient to cover more than three months of imports.
The report also mentions disruptions in June’s revenue mobilization due to a work stoppage by National Board of Revenue officials protesting a proposed organisational restructuring. Revenue collection resumed after the protest was called off.
Despite emerging signs of improvement, GED stresses that inflation control, financial sector stability and renewed investor confidence remain critical for achieving stronger growth in FY2025–26.
It warns that the recovery’s impact on jobs, poverty reduction and living standards will depend on effective policy implementation, stronger financial governance and more inclusive development strategies.
Weak private investment and soft industrial activity continue to constrain growth, the report notes, while remittances, exports and manufacturing—particularly the RMG sector—remain key drivers expected to support a stronger FY2026.
GED also flags several mounting challenges, including limited reserves, fragile investor sentiment, evolving buyer preferences and global trade uncertainties. Addressing these vulnerabilities is essential, it says, to avoid slower growth, worsening poverty and rising inequality.
Bangladesh is at a “critical juncture,” the report concludes, emphasising the need to strengthen manufacturing—especially garments and SMEs—boost remittances, address the needs of a growing labour force and invest more in human capital.
With timely policy reforms, stronger institutions and clearer policy communication, Bangladesh has the opportunity to regain momentum and ensure more resilient, inclusive growth.
GED recommends that a comprehensive national strategy for sustainable development—underpinned by structural reforms and innovation-driven economic planning—guide future policymaking to reinforce long-term economic resilience.