The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has urged the new government to exercise caution while preparing the national budget for the 2026–27 fiscal year, citing mounting economic challenges stemming from global crises, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The recommendation was made by CPD Executive Director Fahmida Khatun at a programme titled “Recommendations for the Upcoming FY2026–27 Budget”, held at the organisation’s office in Dhanmondi, Dhaka, on Tuesday.
Khatun said Bangladesh’s economy is facing multiple challenges both domestically and internationally, making it essential for the government to adopt clear and strategic policy measures while formulating the next budget.
She stressed that restoring macroeconomic stability should be the government’s top priority. To achieve this, targeted measures will be needed to control inflation, maintain discipline in revenue management, increase investment and expand employment opportunities.
Khatun also emphasised the need to prioritise protection for poor, marginalised and vulnerable groups during the budget formulation process, while accelerating economic recovery.
Referring to the government’s “Family Card” programme, she said the initiative could provide financial support to households and contribute to women’s empowerment. However, she warned that an accurate database must be developed and the programme should be coordinated with existing social safety net schemes to avoid duplication and wastage of public funds.
Khatun noted that the new government is set to present its first budget amid a continuing fiscal deficit. During the July–January period of the current fiscal year, revenue collection grew by 12.9 percent, far below the annual target of 34.5 percent.
This means a substantial amount of revenue would have to be collected in the remaining months of the fiscal year, which she described as highly unlikely. A revenue shortfall of around Tk60,000 crore has already emerged.
She added that the slower revenue collection has also affected the implementation of development projects. Only 20.3 percent of the annual development programme (ADP) target was achieved during July–January, the lowest rate in the past 15 years.
Khatun said the government needs to address weak project management, institutional inefficiencies and excessive reliance on capital-intensive projects when preparing the next budget.
Speaking at the event, CPD Distinguished Fellow Mustafizur Rahman recommended adopting research-based initiatives in revenue management.
He suggested providing tax incentives in sectors that directly benefit people, such as pharmaceuticals, which could encourage entrepreneurs to invest while also creating opportunities for expanding the tax base.
Rahman also noted that a recent court ruling in the United States regarding tariffs imposed during the Trump administration could affect ongoing discussions over a possible trade agreement between Bangladesh and the US, suggesting that the matter may need to be reconsidered.
He further advised the government not to raise domestic fuel prices despite the recent increase in global oil prices, recommending that the authorities instead use profits accumulated in previous years to ease the pressure on consumers.