Global greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 45% by 2035 from 2025 levels to give the world a chance of returning to the 1.5°C warming limit by the end of the century, according to a new United Nations report.
The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, published by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), warns that global temperatures are on course to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold. It says rapid and sustained emissions cuts are needed to limit the scale and duration of the overshoot.
Under the report’s most ambitious scenario, global warming would peak at around 1.7–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels around mid-century before falling to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with an estimated 50% probability.
Achieving that pathway would require greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
The reductions required are far greater than those expected under existing national climate pledges. Full implementation of countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) would cut emissions by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035 against the same baseline.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the prospect of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C should not be treated as a reason to abandon the target.
“Overshoot is not surrender,” he said, urging governments to minimise the extent and duration of warming above the threshold and bring temperatures back below it by the end of the century.
UNEP executive director Inger Andersen warned that every additional fraction of a degree and every extra year of warming would increase climate risks, including deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires.
She said countries must urgently introduce policies to deliver rapid, deep and sustained emissions reductions, adding that existing successes showed that faster progress was possible.
Current policies fall short
The report paints a stark picture of the world’s current climate trajectory.
If existing policies continue, global temperatures could rise by 2.8°C this century and continue increasing thereafter. Even if countries fully implement their current climate pledges and maintain comparable efforts, warming would be limited to only 2.6°C.
In the most optimistic scenario assessed, where countries meet their NDCs and additional net-zero targets, warming would still reach about 2.1°C.
The report attributes the deterioration in projections from last year’s assessment partly to the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New climate pledges submitted since the previous report have made little difference to the overall outlook.
UNEP warns that the opportunity to keep peak warming below 1.7–1.8°C is rapidly narrowing. Every five years of carbon dioxide emissions at current levels would add about 0.1°C to peak warming.
Carbon removal presents major challenge
Even the most ambitious pathway would depend on removing vast quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it permanently.
The report estimates that around 320 billion tonnes of CO₂ would need to be removed over the course of this century — equivalent to roughly eight years of global CO₂ emissions at 2024 levels.
However, the feasibility of achieving this remains uncertain because of technological, economic and social constraints.
The scale of the requirement underlines the importance of cutting emissions at source rather than relying on future carbon removal to compensate for continued pollution.
Renewables offer grounds for optimism
Despite the widening gap between current commitments and the action required, UNEP identifies progress in renewable energy and climate policy as evidence that faster reductions are achievable.
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable electricity capacity has expanded much faster than anticipated, with solar photovoltaic capacity growing at around seven times the previously expected rate.
The report also finds that climate policies have delivered measurable emissions reductions across countries and sectors.
An assessment of more than 220 policy evaluations found that measures in the electricity sector reduced emissions by an average of 9%. Economic instruments, including carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes, delivered reductions of 5–13% across sectors during the periods examined.
But UNEP says these gains remain concentrated in particular countries, sectors and periods. Governments must extend and sustain successful measures on a much larger scale to bring the world closer to the 1.5°C pathway.
Fossil fuel cuts and stronger targets needed
The report calls for governments to accelerate commitments made under the first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the annual rate of energy-efficiency improvements, moving away from fossil fuels in energy systems, reducing methane emissions and halting deforestation.
To align with the lowest-overshoot scenario, renewable electricity capacity would need to be at least three times its 2025 level by 2035 and 4.5 times that level by 2040. Primary energy intensity — energy consumed per unit of gross domestic product — would need to fall by at least 30% by 2035 and 40% by 2040.
The transition away from fossil fuels would also need to accelerate sharply. By 2035, the global shares of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply would have to fall by at least 55%, 15% and 5%, respectively, from 2025 levels.
By 2040, the reductions would need to reach at least 75% for coal, 30% for oil and 35% for gas.
Coal-fired electricity generation would have to decline by at least 75% by 2035 and be effectively phased out worldwide by 2040. Methane emissions would need to fall by at least 25% by 2035 and 40% by 2040, compared with 2025.
UNEP says the next Global Stocktake should reinforce priority areas for emissions reduction and extend quantified targets to 2035 and 2040, giving countries clearer benchmarks for action.