The government is set to unveil the national budget for fiscal year 2026–27 on Thursday, placing strong emphasis on economic recovery, employment generation and easing cost-of-living pressures as inflation and investment weakness continue to weigh on the economy.
The proposed budget, worth around Tk 9.38 trillion, is being framed as a transition plan to restore growth momentum while addressing public frustration over rising prices, job scarcity and uneven development.
Recovery and jobs at the core
At the centre of the budget is a push for job creation through higher investment, support for new entrepreneurs and expanded social protection. Policymakers are also prioritising inflation control and efforts to stabilise macroeconomic conditions.
The government plans to scale up welfare programmes, expand agriculture and health support, and reduce regional disparities. Initiatives such as the “Family Card” and “Farmer Card” are expected to be broadened significantly.
A stronger focus is also being placed on youth employment, skills development and entrepreneurship as part of a wider shift toward an employment-led growth model.
Growth targets and fiscal outlook
The government has set a GDP size target of Tk 68.30 trillion for the next fiscal year, with growth projected at 6.5 percent and inflation targeted at 7.5 percent.
Total revenue is projected at Tk 6.95 trillion, while expenditure will reach Tk 9.38 trillion, leaving a deficit of Tk 2.43 trillion.
A large portion of the gap is expected to be financed through external borrowing, alongside domestic sources. Officials acknowledge that financing the deficit remains one of the most difficult challenges.
Revenue stress remains high
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has been given a target of Tk 6.04 trillion, significantly higher than its historical collection capacity.
However, past trends show persistent shortfalls in revenue mobilisation, raising concerns about the feasibility of the target.
Non-NBR revenue is projected at Tk 91 billion, reflecting limited scope for quick gains outside the tax administration system.
Big push for welfare spending
Social protection spending is set to rise sharply to Tk 1.45 trillion, with expansion of existing programmes and introduction of new schemes.
Education and health allocations will also increase significantly to Tk 1.36 trillion and Tk 693 billion respectively.
However, implementation capacity remains a concern, as several projects continue to face delays and low execution rates.
Tax relief and equity measures
The budget is expected to offer limited relief to taxpayers, including a modest increase in the tax-free income threshold.
At the same time, wealth taxation is set to be tightened to improve equity, with higher charges on larger asset holdings.
Policy insiders say the aim is to balance revenue needs with relief for middle- and lower-income groups.
Long-term development vision
The budget aligns with a broader ambition of building a $1 trillion economy by 2034, driven by industrial expansion, skills development and export-oriented job creation.
A new focus on a “creative economy” is also expected, targeting small businesses, innovation and youth-led enterprises.
Economists caution that while the budget is ambitious, implementation capacity remains a key constraint.
They said controlling inflation under current conditions will be difficult and stressed the need for lower interest rates to support private investment.
They noted that expectations are high for the first budget of the new administration, but said success will depend on financing discipline and effective execution.
Political commitments and fiscal pressure
Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to prioritise election pledges, including job creation, inflation relief and expanded welfare coverage.
Officials, however, acknowledge growing fiscal pressure from rising subsidy costs, development spending needs and weak revenue performance.
Former Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has set a broad “Bangladesh first” policy direction, which is reflected in the budget’s emphasis on domestic demand, welfare expansion and employment generation.
Key challenge: implementation
Despite its expansionary design, the biggest concern remains execution.
Weak project implementation, subsidy pressures and revenue shortfalls are expected to strain fiscal management in the coming year.
Analysts say the success of the budget will depend on whether the government can balance higher spending with stability, while ensuring that growth translates into jobs and price relief.
The budget will be placed in parliament on Thursday amid high expectations from households, businesses and investors seeking relief from persistent economic pressure.