The escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is threatening to become one of the most serious geopolitical and economic crises since the Covid-19 pandemic, with growing risks to energy supplies, global trade, food security and economic growth, according to a new assessment by the International Chamber of Commerce-Bangladesh (ICCB).
The warning was issued in the editorial of the ICCB’s latest News Bulletin, covering April to June 2026, released on Monday.
The chamber said the consequences of the conflict were no longer confined to the Middle East, with disruption to energy infrastructure and growing concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz threatening to reverberate across international markets.
The Strait, through which a significant share of the world’s oil supplies passes, is one of the most strategically important waterways in global trade. Any prolonged disruption could push up oil and gas prices, increasing transport and production costs and adding to inflationary pressures in economies already facing economic uncertainty.
The effects could extend well beyond energy markets. Higher fertiliser prices, rising freight costs and disrupted supply chains could put further pressure on food prices and threaten food security, particularly in developing economies that depend heavily on imported energy and agricultural inputs.
Manufacturers are also facing higher costs, while investors are becoming increasingly cautious as geopolitical uncertainty weighs on business confidence.
The ICCB warned that the financial and humanitarian costs of a prolonged conflict could be substantial. Citing figures attributed to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, it said the war was consuming an estimated $2 billion (bn) a week, resources that could otherwise be used to support humanitarian needs around the world.
International financial institutions have warned that a prolonged escalation could weaken global economic growth while adding to inflation. Developing economies that rely heavily on imported fuel and food are particularly vulnerable, with higher import bills potentially widening fiscal deficits and increasing debt pressures.
Bangladesh faces fresh economic pressures
Bangladesh is among the economies exposed to the conflict’s wider consequences, the ICCB said.
As a major importer of fuel, fertiliser and other essential commodities, Bangladesh could face higher energy and shipping costs if the disruption continues. Increased insurance premiums and freight charges could add further pressure to businesses and consumers.
The chamber warned that prolonged instability could contribute to higher inflation, widen the trade deficit and increase government spending on energy subsidies.
Export-oriented industries could also be affected by higher production and transport costs. The ready-made garment sector, a crucial source of Bangladesh’s export earnings, is particularly exposed to disruptions in global supply chains and changes in international demand.
Higher fertiliser prices could also raise agricultural costs, potentially feeding through into food prices.
The ICCB said continued geopolitical uncertainty could make it more difficult for Bangladesh to attract foreign investment and maintain economic stability as it seeks to sustain growth and prepare for its graduation from the United Nations’ Least Developed Country category.
Businesses seek protection from geopolitical shocks
The crisis has also highlighted the vulnerability of the global trading system to geopolitical disruption.
Businesses are increasingly looking to diversify suppliers, hold larger inventories and invest in digital trade systems to reduce their exposure to sudden interruptions. But the ICCB said such measures require significant time and investment.
The chamber called for greater international cooperation to keep major trade routes open and ensure continued access to food, energy and other essential commodities.
It also urged governments and international organisations to prioritise diplomacy and prevent further escalation.
“Peace” and stability were essential to economic prosperity, the chamber argued, warning that businesses could not invest confidently, supply chains could not operate efficiently and long-term development would become harder to achieve in an environment of prolonged geopolitical instability.
Uncertainty already costing business billions
A separate report by the International Chamber of Commerce and Oxford Economics underlines the economic cost of uncertainty.
According to their latest joint analysis, increased economic policy uncertainty during 2025 reduced real business investment by 1.4% across 10 major economies, equivalent to about $202bn in lost or delayed investment.
The report estimates that under an adverse scenario for 2026, the cost could rise to approximately $380bn. By contrast, a return to greater policy certainty could generate an additional $252bn in business investment — representing a potential swing of more than $630bn.
The figures highlight the importance of stability and predictability for businesses deciding whether to invest, expand production or hire workers.
The ICCB said the Iran conflict demonstrated how quickly a regional confrontation could produce consequences far beyond the countries directly involved.
With energy markets, shipping networks, food supplies and financial markets closely interconnected, the chamber warned that preventing further escalation was not simply a matter of diplomacy but also a vital economic priority.
For businesses and governments around the world, the message is increasingly clear: geopolitical stability is becoming an economic necessity as well as a political one.