A massive shortfall in global funding for climate adaptation is putting millions of lives and livelihoods at risk, warns the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in its Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty, released ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil.
The report finds that developing countries will need over US$310 billion per year by 2035 to adapt to worsening climate impacts—12 times higher than current international public adaptation finance flows. Even if current trends continue, the Glasgow Climate Pact target of doubling adaptation finance to around US$40 billion by 2025 will not be met.
“Climate impacts are accelerating. Yet adaptation finance is not keeping pace, leaving the world’s most vulnerable exposed to rising seas, deadly storms, and searing heat,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “Adaptation is not a cost – it is a lifeline.”
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said that every person on Earth is already feeling the effects of climate change through wildfires, heatwaves, floods, and rising food costs. “If we do not invest in adaptation now, we will face escalating costs every year,” she warned, calling for a global push to boost adaptation finance from both public and private sources—without increasing the debt burdens of vulnerable nations.
Widening Finance Gap
The report estimates that adaptation in developing countries will cost between US$310 billion and US$365 billion per year by 2035, based on current prices. By comparison, international public adaptation finance reached just US$26 billion in 2023, down from US$28 billion the year before—leaving a staggering US$284–339 billion annual shortfall.
If inflation continues at recent rates, UNEP projects that adaptation finance needs could rise to US$440–520 billion per year by 2035.
The report warns that even the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)—committing developed countries to provide at least US$300 billion annually for climate action by 2035—will be insufficient, as the target covers both mitigation and adaptation.
Progress in Planning, But Implementation Gaps Persist
Encouragingly, 172 countries now have at least one national adaptation policy, strategy, or plan in place, with only four countries yet to begin the process. However, 36 of these plans are outdated, raising the risk of maladaptation.
Countries reported over 1,600 adaptation actions in their Biennial Transparency Reports under the Paris Agreement—mostly in biodiversity, agriculture, water, and infrastructure sectors. Yet few countries assess or report the actual outcomes of these actions, leaving major questions about their effectiveness.
Funding Growth Uneven and Uncertain
Support for adaptation projects through multilateral climate funds—including the Adaptation Fund, Global Environment Facility (GEF), and Green Climate Fund (GCF)—rose to US$920 million in 2024, an 86 per cent increase from the previous five-year average. However, UNEP warns that this growth may be temporary amid tightening global budgets.
Private Sector Engagement Crucial
The report estimates that private investment could contribute up to US$50 billion per year to national adaptation priorities—ten times current levels—if governments implement supportive policies and use concessional public finance to de-risk investments.
UNEP stresses that grants, concessional loans, and non-debt-creating instruments are essential to prevent further financial strain on developing countries. It calls for stronger international coordination to integrate climate resilience into financial decision-making and to avoid maladaptation through better planning and monitoring.
“The adaptation finance gap is widening just as the need for resilience is growing,” the report concludes. “Bridging that gap is critical—not just for the world’s most vulnerable communities, but for the stability of global economies.”