Gas sector is facing mounting financial pressure as the cost of supplying gas is projected to rise sharply while regulated selling prices remain largely unchanged, widening the gap that must be covered through government support.
According to Petrobangla’s financial data, the blended cost of gas is projected to reach Tk52.18 per cubic metre during July-November 2026, against an average selling price of Tk23.90, leaving a gap of Tk28.28 per cubic metre.
The projected shortfall is more than three times the Tk7.85 per cubic metre recorded in FY2025-26 (FY26), highlighting the growing financial burden of supplying gas at regulated prices.
The figures also show that Petrobangla has received cumulative government subsidies of Tk63,515.12 crore since FY19, while LNG import expenditure is estimated at around Tk41,278 crore for July-November 2026.
During the five-month period, Petrobangla’s financial statement lists 43 LNG cargoes and subsidy requirements of approximately Tk25,331 crore, underscoring the scale of financial support needed to maintain gas supplies.
The widening gap between procurement costs and selling prices raises concerns about the sustainability of the existing gas pricing structure and the government’s ability to manage the subsidy burden.
Gas supply costs surge
Petrobangla’s data show that the blended cost of gas stood at Tk26.61 per cubic metre in FY25, compared with an average selling price of Tk22.81.
In FY26, the blended cost rose to Tk31.42 per cubic metre, while the average selling price increased marginally to Tk23.57, leaving a gap of Tk7.85.
For July-November 2026, the blended cost is projected to climb further to Tk52.18 per cubic metre, while the average selling price is estimated at Tk23.90.
This would widen the difference between costs and selling prices to Tk28.28 per cubic metre, compared with Tk7.85 in the previous fiscal year.
The projected blended cost represents an increase of about 66% over FY26, while the average selling price would rise by only around 1.4%.
At these rates, Petrobangla would recover only about 46% of its gas supply costs through sales revenue, leaving the remaining 54% to be covered through subsidies or other financial arrangements.
The widening gap reflects the growing challenge of maintaining affordable gas prices while meeting the higher cost of procurement, particularly imported LNG.
However, the statement does not provide a detailed breakdown of how much of the projected cost increase is attributable to international LNG prices, exchange-rate movements, import volumes or changes in domestic gas production.
Government subsidies exceed Tk63,500cr
Petrobangla has received Tk63,515.12 crore in government subsidies since FY19, according to the financial statement, reflecting the substantial public support required to maintain gas supplies.
The annual figures indicate a significant increase in subsidy payments in recent years.
The statement lists Tk2,500 crore in subsidies received in FY19, Tk3,500 crore in FY20 and Tk2,400 crore in FY21.
The amounts subsequently rose to Tk6,000 crore in FY22 and Tk6,315.12 crore in FY23.
For FY24, Petrobangla received Tk6,000 crore, followed by Tk8,900 crore in FY25 and Tk14,600 crore in FY26.
A further Tk13,300 crore was received in FY27 up to 5 October, 2026.
The figures show that annual subsidy payments have increased substantially compared with earlier years, reflecting the growing need for government financial support to cover gas supply costs.
The statement also says Petrobangla received Tk23,900 crore in subsidy payments between March and September 2026 amid financial pressures linked to the Middle East crisis.
These payments form part of the government’s financial support to Petrobangla and are not additional to the cumulative subsidy total.
The growing reliance on subsidies presents a difficult policy choice.
Maintaining regulated gas prices below supply costs helps protect households and industries from sudden increases in energy expenses. However, it also requires greater public financial support as procurement costs rise.
Passing higher costs on to consumers could reduce the subsidy burden but would increase expenses for households, factories and other gas-dependent businesses.
LNG import bill estimated at Tk41,278cr
The financial pressure is also evident in Petrobangla’s LNG import estimates for July-November 2026.
According to the statement, the company expects LNG import expenditure of approximately Tk41,278 crore during the five-month period, involving 43 cargoes.
The document lists nine LNG cargoes for July, six for August, nine for September, 10 for October and nine for November.
Monthly LNG-related expenditure is reported at around Tk6,150 crore in July, Tk5,341 crore in August, Tk9,456 crore in September, Tk10,936 crore in October and Tk9,394 crore in November.
The statement also records subsidy claims totalling approximately Tk25,331 crore over the period, with monthly requirements ranging from about Tk2,880 crore to Tk3,428 crore.
Against these requirements, the document lists Tk13,300 crore in subsidy receipts.
The figures underscore the financial pressure created by Bangladesh’s dependence on imported LNG, particularly as domestic gas prices remain regulated.
Bangladesh relies on imported LNG to bridge the gap between domestic gas production and demand, exposing the country to fluctuations in international fuel prices, exchange rates, shipping costs and supply disruptions.
Higher LNG prices can increase the blended cost of gas even when import volumes remain unchanged, while additional purchases can push up total expenditure
Petrobangla Chairman Md Abdul Mannan said the government was committed to ensuring an adequate supply of natural gas despite soaring LNG prices.
Pricing dilemma deepens
The widening difference between supply costs and regulated selling prices presents a growing challenge for Bangladesh’s energy policy.
Maintaining affordable gas prices helps protect households and energy-intensive industries from sudden increases in operating costs.