Bangladesh may face a major telecommunications infrastructure crisis unless decisions are taken quickly to add new submarine cable capacity, industry experts have warned.
With demand for international bandwidth rising rapidly, delays in securing additional submarine cable connections could create a significant bottleneck for the country’s digital economy over the next decade, speakers told a workshop organised by the Telecom and Technology Reporters’ Network, Bangladesh (TRNB).
The workshop, titled “The Need for New Submarine Cables to Protect Digital Sovereignty and Meet Future Bandwidth Demand”, was held at a resort near Dhaka on Monday.
TRNB president Masuduzzaman Robin chaired the event, while its general secretary Faruk Hossain also addressed the gathering.
Mashiur Rahman, chief executive of C-DataNet Communications Ltd, and Mahmud Shahed, project lead at Metacore Subcom Ltd, made presentations on the history of submarine cables, Bangladesh’s need for additional international connectivity, investment requirements and digital sovereignty.
Metacore Subcom managing director Ahmed Zunaid and chief executive Mohammad Aminul Hakim were also present.
Hakim said allowing private-sector submarine cable operators to connect directly to Bangladesh could strengthen the country’s digital sovereignty and improve the quality and affordability of internet services.
He claimed that greater submarine cable capacity could potentially reduce internet prices by up to 50%, improve quality of service by 25-30% and lower latency. He also projected that internet usage in Bangladesh could increase by 20-30% once additional submarine cable capacity becomes available.
“Our main competitor is not another submarine cable company, but the International Terrestrial Cable (ITC) operators,” he said.
Bandwidth demand soaring
The workshop was told that Bangladesh’s use of international bandwidth has increased dramatically over the past decade.
Consumption stood at around 50Gbps in 2013 before rising to 0.76 terabits per second (Tbps) in 2018, 1.78Tbps in 2020, 4.2Tbps in 2022, 6.86Tbps in 2024 and about 13.5Tbps in 2026.
That represents an increase of roughly 260 times over 13 years.
Current demand for international bandwidth is estimated at about 13.5Tbps. Forecasts presented at the workshop suggest that demand could rise to 19.1Tbps in 2027, around 27Tbps in 2028, 54Tbps in 2030, 305Tbps in 2035 and 432Tbps by 2036.
The growth is expected to be driven by video streaming, cloud services, data centres, artificial intelligence, online education, digital payments and wider industrial digitisation.
Heavy reliance on two submarine cables
Bangladesh currently relies primarily on two government-owned submarine cables — SEA-ME-WE 4 and SEA-ME-WE 5 — with capacities of around 4.6Tbps and 2.5Tbps respectively. Additional international bandwidth is imported through International Terrestrial Cable (ITC) operators.
Industry stakeholders warned that this dependence on only two submarine cables creates a significant vulnerability.
India is connected to 19 international submarine cable systems, Malaysia to 23, Thailand to 12 and the Philippines to 19, according to figures presented at the workshop. Bangladesh, by comparison, currently has only two operational government submarine cable connections.
A fault or maintenance outage affecting either cable could therefore put significant pressure on internet services nationwide.
Bangladesh’s planned third submarine cable, SEA-ME-WE 6, is expected to improve capacity, but industry representatives said it would not be sufficient to meet the country’s longer-term requirements.
SEA-ME-WE 4 is also expected to reach the end of its operational life around 2030, adding to concerns over future resilience.
The workshop forecast that Bangladesh could face a bandwidth shortfall of around 20Tbps by 2028 if new capacity is not added.
Private investment urged
Industry stakeholders said allowing private-sector companies to establish new submarine cable connections could be an important part of the solution.
According to projections presented at the workshop, the proposed private cables could add around 51Tbps of capacity, taking Bangladesh’s total available capacity to roughly 67Tbps.
Such an expansion could increase competition, reduce dependence on bandwidth imported through India and create scope for a substantial reduction in wholesale bandwidth prices.
Industry representatives said the resulting competition could potentially reduce internet prices by as much as 50%, although the actual impact would depend on market conditions and how savings were passed on to consumers.
Experts said the issue was not simply about addressing Bangladesh’s immediate bandwidth requirements but about ensuring the country has sufficient digital capacity in 2030 and beyond.
Planning, financing, constructing and commissioning a submarine cable can take several years. As a result, waiting until a shortage becomes critical could leave insufficient time to respond, they warned.
They also cautioned that continued indecision could result in Bangladesh repeating what they described as a strategic mistake similar to the country’s failure to secure an earlier opportunity to participate in the SEA-ME-WE 3 submarine cable system.