Bangladesh is heading toward a severe and expanding natural gas deficit over the next decade, with daily demand projected to jump from 3,800 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in late 2026 to 5,200 mmcfd by November 2034, according to Petrobangla forecasts.
The figures underscore an urgent need for the country to accelerate domestic exploration while aggressively scaling up liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to keep pace with economic growth.
Domestic production is set to shrink as legacy fields deplete.
Output is expected to drop from roughly 1,640 mmcfd in 2026 to 1,376 mmcfd by November 2029, before recovering modestly to 1,446 mmcfd by late 2034 as new wells and exploration efforts come online.
To bridge the growing gap, Bangladesh will rely heavily on imported LNG.
Supply projections show LNG imports rising from 905 mmcfd in 2026 to 1,445 mmcfd in 2029, reaching 2,295 mmcfd by 2034.
Despite the increase in LNG imports, supply is projected to remain well below demand.
In 2026, total gas supply is estimated at 2,545 mmcfd against demand of 3,800 mmcfd, leaving a shortfall of about 1,255 mmcfd.
The gap is projected to widen to about 1,869 mmcfd in 2029, when demand is expected to reach 4,690 mmcfd against supply of 2,821 mmcfd.
By 2034, demand is projected to rise to 5,200 mmcfd, compared with supply of about 3,741 mmcfd, leaving a shortfall of nearly 1,460 mmcfd.
Heavy reliance on LNG
The projections point to growing dependence on imported LNG as domestic gas fields struggle to maintain output.
Plans include an additional floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) at Kutubjom in Cox’s Bazar and a land-based LNG terminal at Matarbari.
New transmission infrastructure will also be needed to carry regasified LNG into the national gas network.
The financial burden of LNG imports is expected to be substantial. The government estimates that LNG subsidies could reach about Tk19,449 crore by December 2026 and around Tk70,000 crore between December 2026 and November 2029.
For the following five years, LNG import subsidies could reach approximately Tk125,000 crore, depending largely on international LNG prices.
The figures highlight the financial risks of greater exposure to global gas markets, particularly if international LNG prices remain elevated.
Domestic exploration seen as key
The government projection also calls for faster development of domestic gas resources.
Proposed measures include additional seismic surveys, drilling new wells, bringing inactive wells back into production and expanding exploration in the country’s hill and hinge-zone areas.
Bangladesh is also considering unconventional resources, including shale gas, tight sandstone and thin-bed gas, although their commercial viability remains to be established.
State-owned gas companies are expected to contribute additional production, while new offshore and onshore production-sharing contracts (PSCs) could provide further supplies by 2034.
Billions needed for infrastructure
Meeting future gas demand will require major investment in pipelines, exploration and LNG infrastructure.
The projection estimates investment requirements of about Tk20,899 crore by December 2026, rising to around Tk105,000 crore by November 2029 and Tk188,500 crore by November 2034.
Planned projects include transmission pipelines linking Bhola, Barishal, Khulna and Feni-Bakhrabad, as well as a proposed Matarbari-Feni pipeline to transport gas from the planned LNG terminal.
A roughly 97km Feni-Bakhrabad pipeline is proposed to evacuate regasified LNG from the Kutubjom FSRU. The Matarbari project would require a much longer pipeline of about 233km.
Power sector remains major concern
The power sector will remain one of the largest users of gas.
The projection assumes that the sector will receive about 33% of total gas supply in December 2026, rising to 37% in both 2029 and 2034.
The allocation could change if electricity from the Rooppur nuclear power plant and renewable energy projects enters the national grid in significant volumes, potentially reducing the power sector’s reliance on gas.
Gas allocation to the electricity sector is projected at about 840 mmcfd in 2026, rising to approximately 1,043 mmcfd in 2029 and 1,384 mmcfd in 2034.
Growing energy challenge
The projections highlight a difficult balancing act for Bangladesh: domestic gas production is expected to remain under pressure while demand continues to rise with industrialisation and economic activity.
The government faces pressure to accelerate exploration and drilling while expanding LNG import capacity and transmission infrastructure.
The scale of projected LNG subsidies also underscores the risks of relying heavily on imported gas. A sustained rise in international LNG prices could increase the cost of maintaining affordable domestic gas tariffs.
Over the next decade, Bangladesh will need to close the supply gap while containing the rising cost of imported energy and infrastructure to prevent an excessive burden on public finances and consumers.
“We are undertaking extensive drilling and workover programmes for 150 wells by 2030–31, of which 30 wells have already been completed,” said Md Shoeb, director of operations and PSC at Petrobangla.
He added that the government was also working to install additional floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) to increase the country’s LNG import capacity.
“Domestic natural gas production is declining, while dependence on imported LNG is gradually increasing. As a result, we need to spend more on energy imports,” Imran Karim, chairman of Confidence Group, told Just Energy News.
He said the country’s power and energy sector was currently facing significant challenges.
“Skilled management is required to manage the energy sector effectively. Public-private partnerships are therefore essential to ensure a smooth and reliable energy supply,” he said.
Mohiuddin Roben, additional managing director of Denim Expert Ltd, said Bangladesh would not be able to overcome its dependence on LNG in the near term.
“The government should make energy supply forecasts available and provide greater clarity about future supplies. Industrialists need reliable information to plan their future investments,” he said.
Prof M Tamim, vice chancellor of Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB) recommended that the government move away from relying solely on BAPEX for oil and gas exploration and open up exploration to greater participation from international and private-sector companies.